Analyzing the impact of Indonesia’s mineral export policy using input-output tables
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v16i2.14814Keywords:
Mineral Export Policy, I-O Table, Impact Analysis, Linkage AnalysisAbstract
Indonesia is a country with abundant mineral resources, which makes a major contribution to the national economy, especially through its export sector. Over the past two decades, the mining sector has consistently contributed an average of 9.77% to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, the implementation of the raw mineral ore export ban policy led to a decline in the volume and value of mining commodity exports, which directly impacted the sector's contribution to GDP and the national export structure. The policy requires the processing and refining of minerals to be carried out domestically before they can be exported, as an effort to encourage downstreaming and increase added value. This study aims to analyse the impact of the mineral export ban policy on the national economy and examine the linkages between the mining sector and other sectors through the Input-Output (I-O) approach. The method used in this research is Input-Output (I-O) analysis using the 2020 Indonesian I-O Table, which has been aggregated into 29 sectors. The results reveal that the export ban generated a substantial contraction in national output, particularly in coal, manufacturing, transport, and mining services sectors, indicating that downstream capacity remains structurally insufficient. This study contributes by providing updated empirical evidence on the structural constraints of Indonesia’s mineral downstreaming strategy and by demonstrating that export restrictions alone are inadequate without parallel expansion of domestic processing infrastructure and intersectoral coordination.
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