The impact of globalization, macroeconomic variables, and financial development on economic growth: Evidence from ASEAN countries

Authors

  • Putri Eliza Syahda Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim
  • Nora Ria Retnasih Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v15i1.12113

Keywords:

Globalization, Macroeconomic performance, Financial development, Economic growth, Emerging market

Abstract

Globalization in the modern world is behind the formation of emerging market countries through the transition in economic growth. ASEAN is considered as the driving force of the world economy, including the emerging market countries that grow within it.  However, economic growth in ASEAN emerging market countries still has to face many challenges. In macro analysis, the parameter of economic growth is GDP. Over time economists have highlighted that there are many other indicators, one of which is globalization, macroeconomic performance and financial development. The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of globalization, inflation, public spending, human capital and financial development on economic growth. This research is relevant because it relates to factors that affect economic growth amid increasingly complex global challenges by providing a comprehensive view of the relationship between variables. This type of quantitative research is based on secondary data. The sampling procedure employed is purposive sampling, which was applied to 5 countries. Data analysis using the PVECM or panel VECM method. The results showed that in the long run globalization, inflation, physical capital, and financial development affect economic growth, but government spending has no effect. While in the short term both lag 1 and 2 all variables affect economic growth. The implication of the study that  government to prioritize the effective allocation of public spending, ensuring that funds are directed toward productive sectors such as infrastructure, education, and health.

References

Abdelli, H., Gheraia, Z., Sekrafi, H., & Abid, M. (2024). The asymmetric impact of government expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from a NARDL model. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 11(3), 92-101. https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2024.03.010

Abrigo, M. R. M., & Love, I. (2016). Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata. Stata Journal, 16(3), 778-804. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1601600314

Acclime. (2024). Guide to top emerging markets in Asia. Acclime. https://www.acclime.com/insights/emerging-markets-asia-guide/

Achsani, N. A., Holis, A., Irawan, T., & Hasanah, H. (2023). Ekonometrika dengan Aplikasi dalam Bidang Ekonomi dan Keuangan. IPB Press.

Ali, W., & Munir, K. (2016). Testing Wagner versus Keynesian hypothesis for Pakistan: The role of aggregate and disaggregate expenditure. MPRA Paper, 74570.

Andriansyah, A., Erlina, E., Silalahi, A. S., Sadalia, I., & Ilham, R. N. (2023). Analyzing the impact of foreign direct invesment, money flow dynamics, and inflation on economic growth: Evidence from special economic zones. International Journal of Business, Economics & Financial Studies, 1(1), 8-12. https://doi.org/10.62157/ijbefs.v1i1.8

Anindyntha, F. A. (2023). Analysis of inclusive growth in ASEAN countries. Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 13(2), 231-241. https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v13i2.8363

Aslan, A., & Altinoz, B. (2021). The impact of natural resources and gross capital formation on economic growth in the context of globalization: Evidence from developing countries on the continent of Europe, Asia, Africa, and America. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(26), 33794-33805. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12979-7

Aydın, C., Esen, Ö., & Bayrak, M. (2016). Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Turkish Republics in transition process. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 229, 196-205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.07.129

Béland, D., Cantillon, B., Greve, B., Hick, R., & Moreira, A. (2024). Understanding the inflation and social policy nexus. Social Policy and Society, 23(1), 149-162. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474746423000349

Bui, T. N. (2020). Domestic credit and economic growth in ASEAN countries: A nonlinier approach. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 11(2), 1-9.

Byaro, M., & Rwezaula, A. (2024). How do technological innovation and urbanization drive economic growth in Tanzania and transform societies? Exploring the potential channels. Journal of Economy and Technology, 2, 235-246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ject.2024.08.001

Dix-Carneiro, R., Pessoa, J. P., Reyes-Heroles, R., & Traiberman, S. (2023). Globalization, trade imbalances, and labor market adjusment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 138(2), 1109-1171. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac043

Dolton, P., Bondibene, C. R., & Wadsworth, J. (2012). Employment, inequality and the UK national minimum wage over the medium-term. Oxford Bulleting of Economics and Statistics, 74(1), 78-106. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00653.x

Dorman, P. (2014). Macroeconomics: A Fresh Start. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37441-8

Ekananda, M. (2022). Dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, and banking performance using panel vector autoregressive. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 23(2), 245-266. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v23i2.16014

Ekanayake, E. M., & Thaver, R. (2021). The nexus between financial development and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(10), 489-509. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14100489

Elfaki, K. E., & Ahmed, E. M. (2024). Globalization and financial development contributions toward economic growth in Sudan. Research in Globalization, 9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2024.100246

Fengju, X., & Wubishet, A. (2024). Analysis of the impacts of financial development on economic growth in East Africa: How do the institutional qualities matter? Economic Analysis and Policy, 82, 1177-1189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.04.002

Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Quality ladders in the theory of growth. The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 43-61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2298044

Kurniawan, M. L. A., & Prawoto, N. (2014). Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penentuan titik ambang batas inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 15(1), 71-77.

Lu, B., Charlton, M., Harris, P., & Fotheringham, A. S. (2014). Geographically weighted regression with a non-euclidean distance metric: A case study hedonic house price data. International Journal of Geograhical Information Science, 28(4), 660-681. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2013.865739

Malec, K., Maitah, M., Rojik, S., Aragaw, A., & Fulnečková, P. R. (2024). Inflation, exchange rate, and economic growth in Ethiopia: A time-series analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103561

McConnel, C. R., Brue, S. L., & Flynn, S. M. (2012). Economics: Principles, Problems, and Policies (18th ed.). Media Integrated.

McKinsey. (2022). How to mitigate the effects of inflation. McKinsey Themes. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/themes/how-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-inflation

Mendoza, E. G. (2010). Sudden Stops, financial crises, and leverage. American Economic Review, 100(5), 1941-1966. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.5.1941. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.5.1941

Meyer, D. (2020). The impact of globalization on economic growth: The case of Visegrad countries. Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 8, 35-36.

Millah, R. L., & Wibowo, W. (2021). The effect of financial development on economic growth countries ASEAN-4. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan, 6(2), 293-307. https://doi.org/10.20473/jiet.v6i2.29407

Nguyen, M.-L. T., & Bui, N. T. (2022). Government expenditure and economic growth: does the role of corruption control matter? Heliyon, 8(10). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10822

Nyasha, S., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2019). The impact of public expenditure on economic growth: A review of international literature. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 19(2), 81-101. https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2019-0015

Opadeji, A. S., Olaniyi, O. A., Adekanmbi, A. M., & Olubitan, J. O. (2023). Gross capital formation, infrastructure and economic development in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 23(22), 275-285. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2023/v23i221152

Park, C. (2024). ASEAN economic integration: Addressing challenges and embracing opportunities. Asian Economic Policy Review, 19(2), 172-193. https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12462

Pei Ling, T., Yusof, M. F., Nik Mahmood, N. H., & Hup Soon, T. (2014). The implementation of minimum wages in Malaysia. Sains Humanika, 2(2).

Qabaja, M., & Tenekeci, G. (2024). Influence of inflation on the construction sector and economic growth in selected countries: A continental comparison. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 15(11). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2024.103013

Radulović, M., & Kostić, M. (2024). Globalization and economic growth in Western Balkan countries. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 16(8). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100031

Razia, A., Omarya, M., Razia, B., Awwad, B., & Ruzieh, A. (2023). Examining how unemployment, inflation and their related aspects affected economic growth in Palestine: The period from 1991 to 2020. Heliyon, 9(11). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21081

Retnasih, N. R., & Herdianti, Y. M. (2023). Pandemic shock and economic variables responses in ASEAN countries using panel vector autoregressive model. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 24(1), 95-111. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v24i1.19850

Riyanto, F. D. (2020). Are ASEAN 5 countries suitable for optimum currency area? Exchange rate approach. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan, 5(2), 107-120.

Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. The Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037. https://doi.org/10.1086/261420

Shaddady, A. (2022). Is government spending an important factor in economic growth? Nonlinier cubic quantile nexus from Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA). Economies, 10(11), 286-298. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10110286

Solaymani, S., & Montes, O. (2024). The role of financial development and good governance in economic growth and environmental sustainability. Energy Nexus, 13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2023.100268

Sulistiana, I., Hidayati, & Sumar. (2017). Model Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach for inflation relations analysis, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), world tin price, BI rate and rupiah exchange rate. Integrated Journal of Business and Economics, 1(2), 17-32.

Virgan, M., & Yanuar, Y. (2022). Analisis pengaruh globalisasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di ASEAN periode 2013-2019. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Dan Kewirausahaan, 6(3), 260-265. https://doi.org/10.24912/jmbk.v6i3.18650

Wang, Z., & Ali, M. (2024). Financial globalization and economic growth amid geopolitical risk: A study on China-Rusia far East Federal district. Heliyon, 10(10). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31098

Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data (2nd ed.). The MIT Press.

Wulandari, A. T., & Fitriyah. (2024). The effect of financial literacy and financial technology on financial performance with education as a moderating variable (Study on MSMEs in the culinary sector in Malang city). International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Research (IJEBIR), 3(4).

Downloads

Published

2025-03-20

Issue

Section

Articles