Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan

Environmental risk, natural disasters, and economic growth management in Indonesia: A satellite-based analysis

Devi Anggrayni, Wahyu Widodo, Hastarini Dwi Atmanti — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This study examines how environmental risk and natural disasters affect economic performance in a disaster-prone emerging economy. It focuses on the short-run and long-run impacts of flood exposure, forest loss, and spatial economic expansion on Indonesia’s economic growth, with implications for investment stability and growth management. The study integrates satellite-based indicators of flood exposure, forest loss, and night-time light intensity with national time-series macroeconomic data for Indonesia over the period 1960–2024. These variables are analyzed using a dynamic time-series framework to capture both short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium relationships between environmental risk and economic performance. The results show that environmental factors affect economic performance in differentiated ways. Forest loss exhibits a statistically significant long-run association with economic growth, reflecting the continued role of land conversion and resource utilization in Indonesia’s development process. In contrast, disaster-related indicators do not display robust long-run negative effects at the aggregate level, suggesting that adaptive mechanisms such as reconstruction activity and economic diversification mitigate their macroeconomic impact. Short-run effects of environmental variables are generally limited. This study contributes to the business and management literature by reframing environmental risk as a structural constraint on economic performance and investment stability. By integrating satellite-based environmental data into macroeconomic analysis, it provides a novel, management-oriented framework for assessing disaster-related economic risk in emerging economies.

Comparing borrower-based and institution-based tools: Regulatory trade-offs in the pursuit of innovation-led growth

Agus Salim, Lestari Sukarniati — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This study examines the "stability paradox" in 18 Asian economies (1990-2024), focusing on how rules like Reserve Requirements (RR) and Loan-to-Value (LTV) affect the innovation-growth relationship. Using FE-DK and FE-2SLS methods to ensure reliability, the results identify a paradox between innovation and growth, where new patents initially slow growth due to high catch-up costs. Most importantly, tightening financial rules—especially RR—triggers a stability paradox by weakening the synergy between innovation and progress. This occurs because RR drains the pool of available lending and causes risk filtering, in which banks favor safe sectors over innovative ones. These findings suggest that Asian authorities must balance financial safety with economic renewal to avoid stifling long-term technological progress.

Analysis the effect of digital economy on income inequality: A study on six ASEAN countries

I Kadek Eka Prana Jaya — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The rapid development of the digital economy has reshaped labor markets and income distribution, raising concerns over whether digitalization exacerbates or reduces income inequality. While technological progress is often associated with skill-biased effects, digital technologies may also broaden access to markets, information, and economic opportunities, particularly in developing regions such as ASEAN. This study examines the impact of digital economy on income inequality in ASEAN countries and assesses whether the relationship follows a non-linear (U-shaped) pattern. Using panel data from six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Philippines) over the period 2010–2020 (66 country-year observations), the analysis employs fixed-effects panel regression models. A quadratic specification is estimated to test for non-linearity, and potential endogeneity is addressed using a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach with telecommunication-based instrumental variables. The empirical results indicate that digital economy has a negative and statistically significant effect on income inequality, suggesting an equalizing impact across ASEAN countries. The findings imply that digitalization reduces income inequality by expanding access to digital infrastructure and economic participation, thereby enhancing labor market inclusion and income opportunities for low- and middle-income groups. However, no robust evidence of a non-linear (U-shaped) relationship is found, as the estimated turning point lies outside the observed data range.

Village fiscal transfers and poverty alleviation in Java: Evidence from panel data analysis

Triya Septiyaningrum, Jumaiyah Jumaiyah — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Poverty remains a persistent challenge in economic development and a central concern of Sustainable Development Goal 1. Although previous studies have examined the relationship between village fiscal transfers and poverty, most focus on a single transfer instrument and rarely assess village funds, village fund allocation, and local tax and retribution revenue sharing simultaneously over an extended period. This study examines the association between these three fiscal transfer instruments and poverty across 79 districts in Java from 2016 to 2023 using a balanced eight-year panel dataset. A fixed-effects model is employed, supported by descriptive statistics, panel-data diagnostic tests, hypothesis testing, and robustness checks. The results show that all three fiscal transfer instruments are significantly and negatively associated with poverty. village funds exhibit the strongest association, with a coefficient of -0.109, followed by local tax and retribution revenue sharing (-0.036) and village fund allocation (-0.014). The model is jointly significant, with an F-statistic of 173.344 (p < 0.001), while the adjusted R-squared of 0.957 indicates strong overall model fit, although part of this explanatory power reflects unobserved, time-invariant district characteristics captured by fixed effects. The negative associations remain robust after correcting for cross-sectional dependence using robust standard errors and after separate estimations for the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods. These findings suggest that strengthening village fiscal transfers, particularly village funds, alongside improved governance, transparency, accountability, and community participation, can support poverty reduction and help narrow regional disparities across Java. The study provides empirical evidence for designing more effective and equitable intergovernmental fiscal policies.