Support Vector Regression optimization with Particle Swam Optimization algorithm for predicting the gold prices
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12928/bamme.v3i2.9561Keywords:
Particle Swam Optimization, Prediction, Support Vector RegressionAbstract
This paper discusses about how to predict the gold prices from 1 January 2021 to 31 January 2023. The method used in this study is the Support Vector Regression (SVR) technique, method that was developed from the support vector machine which is used as regression approach to predict future event. From the past study already know that SVR had limitation in achieving good performance because of its sensitivity to parameters. To overcome the SVR performance problems, an optimization algorithm is proposed in this study. The PSO algorithm is applied in this study to optimize the parameters of the SVR method. The results showed that the prediction of the SVR model obtained an MSE value of 0.0035744. While in the SVR model with the PSO algorithm, the MSE value is 0.0033058.
References
Alaidi, A. H. M., Alairaji, R. M., Alrikabi, H. T. S., Aljazaery, I. A., & Abbood, S. H. (2022). Dark Web Illegal Activities Crawling and Classifying Using Data Mining Techniques. Int. J. Interact. Mob. Technol., 16(10), 122–139. https://dx.doi.org/10.3991/ijim.v16i10.30209
Ali, R., Mangla, I. U., Rehman, R. U., Xue, W., Naseem, M. A., & Ahmad, M. I. (2020). Exchange rate, gold price, and stock market nexus: A quantile regression approach. Risks, 8(3), 1–16. https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks8030086
Ensafi, Y., Hassanzadeh, S., Zhang, G., & Shah, B. (2022). International Journal of Information Management Data Insights Time-series forecasting of seasonal items sales using machine learning – A comparative analysis. Int. J. Inf. Manag. Data Insights, 2(1), 100058. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jjimei.2022.100058
Khaire, U. M., & Dhanalakshmi, R. (2022). .Stability of feature selection algorithm: A review. J. King Saud Univ. Comput. Inf. Sci., 34(4), 1060–1073. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jksuci.2019.06.012
Kim, M., Lee, J., Lee, C., & Jeong, J. (2022). Framework of 2D KDE and LSTM-Based Forecasting for Cost-Effective Inventory Management in Smart Manufacturing. Appl. Sci., 12(5). https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12052380
Kusumawati, Y., Widyatmoko, K., & Irawan, C. (2022). Gold Price Prediction Using Support Vector Regression. J. Appl. Intell. Syst., 7(1), 89–102. https://dx.doi.org/10.33633/jais.v7i1.6124
Li, J. (2022). Macro carbon price prediction with support vector regression and Paris accord targets. September 2022, 1–13.
Madani, M. A., & Ftiti, Z. (2022). Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil and currency market movements? A revisit using multifractal approach. Ann. Oper. Res., 313(1), 367–400. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-021-04288-6
Maori, N. A. (2017). Perbandingan Metode ANN-PSO dan ANN-GA untuk Peningkatan Akurasi Prediksi Harga Emas ANTAM. Disprotek, 8(1), 67–80.
Ngoc, T. T., Van Dai, L., & Thuyen, C. M. (2021). Support vector regression based on grid search method of hyperparameters for load forecasting. Acta Polytech. Hungarica, 18(2), 143–158. https://dx.doi.org/10.12700/APH.18.2.2021.2.8
Rico, S., Ilham, N., Irada, S., & Mangasi. (2022). The Effect of Technical Analysis on Cryptocurrency Investment Returns With the 5 ( Five ) Highest Market. Ejournal Sean Inst., 11(2), 1022–1035.
Romana, A. S. (2017). A Comparative Study of Different Machine Learning Algorithms for Disease Prediction. Int. J. Adv. Res. Comput. Sci. Softw. Eng., 7(7), 172. https://dx.doi.org/10.23956/ijarcsse/v7i7/0177
Setyowibowo, S., As’ad, M., Sujito, S., & Farida, E. (2022). Forecasting of Daily Gold Price using ARIMA-GARCH Hybrid Model. J. Ekon. Pembang., 19(2), 257–270. https://dx.doi.org/10.29259/jep.v19i2.13903
Syahri, A. & Robiyanto, R. (2020). The correlation of gold, exchange rate, and stock market on Covid-19 pandemic period. J. Keuang. dan Perbank., 24(3), 350–362. https://dx.doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v24i3.4621
Tanveer, M., Rajani, T., Rastogi, R., Shao, Y. H., & Ganaie, M. A. (2022). Comprehensive review on twin support vector machines. Ann. Oper. Res. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-022-04575-w
Vasista, K. (2022). Types and Risks Involved Towards Investing in Mutual Funds. Int. J. Curr. Sci., 12(1), 2250–1770.
Zhang, H. (2022). Unravelling the synergy of oxygen vacancies and gold nanostars in hematite for the electrochemical and photoelectrochemical oxygen evolution reaction. Nano Energy, 94(January), 106968. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.nanoen.2022.106968
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Novi Selviani, Joko Purwadi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).